Carrefour has lowered its 2026 financial outlook after unrest in France disrupted stores and consumer spending, even as the supermarket group reported 2.3% like-for-like sales growth in the third quarter.

The French retailer published its trading update on 20 October. Group sales, including VAT and before hyperinflation accounting adjustments, reached €22.69 billion, up 3.9% at current exchange rates. Reported sales after those adjustments reached €22.78 billion.

Carrefour said deteriorating security conditions and weaker consumer confidence in France have increased uncertainty during the important year-end trading period. It now expects its recurring operating income margin to improve by between zero and 15 basis points in 2026, compared with its previous target of 25 basis points.

The group also expects adjusted earnings per share to be stable or grow slightly, rather than increase at a high single-digit rate. Net free cash flow is now expected to decline slightly from 2025, reversing an earlier forecast for modest growth.

Carrefour’s third-quarter performance varied by market. Like-for-like sales increased 1.2% in France, 2.1% in Spain and 1.4% in Brazil. Spain benefited from higher volumes, while the Atacadão cash-and-carry business supported Carrefour’s position in Brazil.

French sales reached €11.9 billion. Carrefour pointed to continued investment in prices, including another round of reductions in August, as part of its effort to protect market share and improve the perception of value.

That combination of rising sales and weaker financial guidance highlights the different pressures facing grocery chains. Price competition can help maintain traffic, but store closures, security costs and operating disruption may still squeeze profitability.

The group said it remains on track with its €1 billion cost-savings target for 2026. During the quarter it opened 89 convenience stores across France and Spain and equipped 28 French hypermarkets with Vusion retail technology. E-commerce sales increased 18%.

For suppliers, the most immediate question is whether operating disruption in France affects store replenishment, promotional schedules and deliveries as retailers prepare for November and December trading. Carrefour has not published a full breakdown of supplier-level impacts, so these remain issues to monitor rather than confirmed losses.

The results are separate from Carrefour’s recently announced agreement to acquire French grocery wholesaler Codifrance. GTN reported the €152 million Codifrance acquisition on 19 October. That deal concerns the group’s longer-term convenience and wholesale network, rather than the immediate trading pressures behind the latest outlook revision.

Carrefour also faces different competitive conditions outside France. GTN’s overview of supermarket trends in Spain explains the changing positions of Carrefour, Mercadona and DIA, while its European grocery buying alliances guide examines the purchasing relationships that matter to suppliers.

The group said its Carrefour 2030 strategy remains unchanged. The coming weeks will show how quickly affected French stores return to normal trading and whether the disruption changes holiday demand, costs and inventory requirements.