US food inflation rose 2.9% year-on-year in January 2026, while supermarket prices increased 2.1%, reinforcing moderate but uneven cost pressure across grocery categories heading into 2026.
The February 2026 Food Price Outlook, incorporating January Consumer Price Index data, shows overall food prices increased 0.4% month to month. Food-at-home prices rose 0.6% from December, while food-away-from-home increased 0.1%.
Restaurant prices remain higher than supermarket inflation, rising 4.0% year-on-year compared with 2.1% for grocery purchases.
The divergence confirms that supermarket inflation remains contained relative to foodservice — but category-level pressures remain significant.
Key inflation numbers buyers should focus on
| Inflation Measure | January 2026 | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Food-at-home | 2.1% (YoY) | Direct supermarket pricing exposure |
| Food-away-from-home | 4.0% (YoY) | Restaurant comparison benchmark |
| All food | 2.9% (YoY) | Total food inflation environment |
| Monthly food change | +0.4% | Indicates continued upward movement |
Across the 15 supermarket categories tracked, price changes varied widely.
Eleven categories recorded monthly increases. Four declined.
Seven categories posted monthly increases of at least 1.0%: processed fruits and vegetables, nonalcoholic beverages, fish and seafood, other meats, pork, cereal and bakery products, and sugar and sweets.
Eggs recorded a significant monthly decline.
Protein and sugar driving category pressure
Beef and veal prices declined 0.9% month to month but remain 15.0% higher than January 2025 levels. Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 5.5% in 2026.
Pork prices rose 1.3% month to month and are 1.4% higher year-on-year. Pork prices are forecast to rise 1.9% this year.
Poultry prices declined 0.1% in January but remain 1.6% above last year. Poultry prices are forecast to increase 0.1% in 2026.
Retail egg prices fell 5.3% month to month and are 34.2% lower year-on-year following recovery from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza disruptions. Egg prices are forecast to decline 27.4% in 2026 compared with 2025.
Sugar and sweets prices increased 1.0% month to month and are 5.7% higher than a year earlier. They are forecast to rise 6.7% in 2026.
Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 1.6% month to month and are 4.5% higher year-on-year. Prices are forecast to increase 5.2% this year.
Fresh vegetable prices rose 0.2% month to month and are 0.8% higher than a year ago. Fresh fruit prices increased 0.7% month to month but remain 0.5% lower year-on-year.
2026 supermarket inflation outlook
Overall food prices are forecast to increase 3.1% in 2026.
Food-at-home prices are predicted to rise 2.5%, while food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase 3.7%.
Seven grocery categories are expected to grow faster than their 20-year historical averages this year, including beef and veal, other meats, fish and seafood, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, cereal and bakery products, and nonalcoholic beverages.
Egg prices are projected to decline compared with 2025 levels.
Food price growth has moderated significantly from recent peak years. Food prices rose 9.9% in 2022, before slowing to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025.
Farm and wholesale signals for supermarkets
Producer prices remain more volatile than retail prices, a dynamic closely watched by US supermarket buyers.
Farm-level cattle prices increased 20.9% in 2025, while wholesale beef prices rose 13.1%.
Farm-level cattle prices are forecast to rise 6.2% in 2026. Wholesale beef prices are forecast to increase 2.7%.
Farm-level egg prices rose 31.6% in 2025 but are forecast to decline 44.1% this year as production recovers.
Farm-level milk prices are forecast to increase 6.8% in 2026. Farm-level vegetable prices are forecast to rise 6.4%, and farm-level fruit prices are forecast to increase 1.5%. Farm-level wheat prices are forecast to decline 3.0%.
Because consumer prices typically lag movements at farm and wholesale levels, producer price trends remain central to negotiations across US supermarket categories.
For now, the February outlook confirms that 2026 will be defined by selective grocery price pressure rather than broad-based acceleration, with protein and sugar-linked departments requiring the closest monitoring.
Editor’s note: This report is based solely on the February 2026 Food Price Outlook incorporating January 2026 Consumer Price Index and December 2025 Producer Price Index data.
